Peter Hitchcock Large-scale Atmospheric Dynamics Group

Publications

Underlined names are current or former group members.

Refereed Journal Articles

Manuscripts in Review

H. J. Min and P. Hitchcock. "Identifying sources of predictability of the qbo using machine learning." J. Geophys. Res., :, in review.

J. Huang, P. Hitchcock, and W. Tian. "Why do SNAPSI forecasts miss the negative PNA anomaly in February 2018?" J. Geophys. Res., :, in review.

Manuscripts in Press

F. M. Palmeiro, P. Hitchcock, and J. Garcia-Serrano. "Separating multi-decadal and interannual dynamics in the North Pacific and the stratospheric polar vortex and their different teleconnections to the North Atlantic." Geophys. Res. Lett., :, in press.

K. Feng, J. Rao, C. I. Garfinkel, A. H. Butler et al. "Separating multi-decadal and interannual dynamics in the North Pacific and the stratospheric polar vortex and their different teleconnections to the North Atlantic." NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., :, in press. 10.1038/s41612-025-01234-2.

2025

58. P. Hitchcock and A. Ming. "The role of ozone in the secondary circulation of the QBO: Linear theory." J. Geophys. Res., 130:e2025JD044766, 2025. 10.1029/2025JD044766.

57. P. Rupp, P. Hitchcock, and T. Birner. "Coupled planetary wave dynamics in the polar stratosphere analyzed with potential enstrophy and eddy energy budgets." J. Atmos. Sci., 82:1629–1645, 2025. 10.1175/JAS-D-24-0249.1.

56. Y. Dai, P. Hitchcock, A. H. Butler, C. I. Garfinkel et al. "Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming from the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project." Weather Clim. Dynam., 6:841–862, 2025. 10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025.

55. J. Pan, P. Hitchcock, and Y. Dai. "On the zonal asymmetry of tropospheric anomalies forced by stratospheric polar vortex variability." J. Atmos. Sci., 82:1499–1516, 2025. 10.1175/JAS-D-24-0101.1.

54. A. Ming, P. Hitchcock, C. Orbe, and K. Dubé. "Phase and amplitude relationships between ozone, temperature and circulation in the quasi-biennial oscillation." J. Geophys. Res., 130:e2024JD042469, 2025. 10.1029/2024JD042469.

2024

53. Y. Dai, P. Hitchcock, and I. R. Simpson. "What drives the spread and bias in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warmings in CMIP6 models?" J. Clim., 37:865–884, 2024. 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0622.1.

2023

52. J. Huang and P. Hitchcock. "Defining Arctic stratospheric polar vortex intensification events." J. Geophys. Res., 128:e2023JD039373, 2023. 10.1029/2023jd039373.

51. C. Bertossa, P. Hitchcock, A. DeGaetano, and R. Plougonven. "Coherent bimodal events in ensemble forecasts of 2-m temperature." Weather Forecast, 38:1953–1970, 2023. 10.1175/waf-d-23-0053.1.

50. E. Landgren, A. Nadeau, N. Lewis, T. Kataria et al. "A shallow-water model exploration of atmospheric circulation on sub-Neptunes: Effects of radiative forcing and rotation period." Planet. Sci. J., 4:106, 2023. 10.3847/psj/acd551.

49. Y. Dai, P. Hitchcock, and I. R. Simpson. "Dynamics and impacts of the North Pacific eddy-driven jet response to sudden stratospheric warmings." J. Clim., 36:865–884, 2023. 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0300.1.

2022

48. Y. Dai, P. Hitchcock, N. M. Mahowald, D. I. V. Domeisen et al. "Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean." Nat. Commun., 13:7744, 2022. 10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1.

47. N. Goutham, R. Plougonven, H. Omrani, A. Tantet et al. "Statistical downscaling to improve the sub-seasonal predictions of energy-relevant surface variables." Mon. Wea. Rev., pages 275–296, 2022. 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0170.1.

46. P. Hitchcock, A. Butler, A. Charlton-Perez, C. Garfinkel et al. "Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A protocol for investigating the role of the stratospheric polar vortex in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts." Geosci. Model Dev., 15:5073–5092, 2022. 10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022.

45. N. Goutham, R. Plougonven, H. Omrani, S. Parey et al. "How skillful are the European sub-seasonal forecasts of surface temperature and wind speed beyond two weeks?" Mon. Wea. Rev., 150:1621–1637, 2022. 10.1175/MWR-D-21-0207.1.

44. I. P. White, C. I. Garfinkel, and P. Hitchcock. "On the tropospheric response to transient stratospheric momentum torques." J. Clim., 79:2041–2058, 2022. 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0237.1.

43. W. Cheng, D. G. MacMartin, B. Kravitz, D. Visioni et al. "Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering." NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5:32, 2022. 10.1038/s41612-022-00254-6.

42. J. Huang, P. Hitchcock, W. Tian, and J. Sillin. "Stratospheric influence on the development of the 2018 late winter European cold air outbreak." J. Geophys. Res., 127:e2021JD035877, 2022. 10.1029/2021JD035877.

2021

41. W. J. Randel, F. Wu, A. Ming, and P. Hitchcock. "A simple model of ozone–temperature coupling in the tropical lower stratosphere." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21:18531–18542, 2021. 10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021.

40. A. Ming and P. Hitchcock. "What contributes to the inter-annual variability in tropical lower stratospheric temperatures?" J. Geophys. Res., 127:e2021JD035548, 2021. 10.1029/2021JD035548.

39. C. Bertossa, P. Hitchcock, A. DeGaetano, and R. Plougonven. "Bimodality in ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature: Identification." Weather Clim. Dynam., 2:1209–1224, 2021. 10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021.

38. Y. Dai and P. Hitchcock. "Understanding the basin asymmetry in surface response to sudden stratospheric warmings from an ocean–atmosphere coupled perspective." J. Clim., 34:8683–8698, 2021. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0314.1.

37. J. Huang, P. Hitchcock, A. C. Maycock, C. M. McKenna et al. "Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions." Commun. Earth Environ., 2:147, 2021. 10.1038/s43247-021-00215-6.

36. P. Hitchcock. "Stratospheric vacillations in a minimal contour dynamics model." J. Atmos. Sci., 78:2177–2193, 2021. 10.1175/JAS-D-20-0296.1.

35. P. Haynes, P. Hitchcock, M. Hitchman, S. Yoden et al. "The influence of the stratosphere on the tropical troposphere." J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99:803–845, 2021. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-040.

2020

34. B. Ayarzagüena, A.J. Charlton-Perez, A.H. Butler, P. Hitchcock et al. "Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models." J. Geophys. Res., 125:e2019JD032345, 2020. 10.1029/2019JD032345.

33. A. C. Maycock, G. I. T. Masukwedza, P. Hitchcock, and I. R. Simpson. "A regime perspective on the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet response to sudden stratospheric warmings." J. Clim., 33:3901–3917, 2020. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0702.1.

32. I. P. White, C. Garfinkel, E. Gerber, M. Jucker et al. "The generic nature of the tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings." J. Clim., 33:5589–5610, 2020. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0697.1.

31. D. I. V. Domeisen, A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton‐Perez, B. Ayarzagüena et al. "The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction Part I: Predictability of the stratosphere." J. Geophys. Res., 125:e2019JD030920, 2020. 10.1029/2019JD030920.

30. D. I. V. Domeisen, A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton‐Perez, B. Ayarzagüena et al. "The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction Part II: Predictability arising from stratosphere ‐ troposphere coupling." J. Geophys. Res., 125:e2019JD030923, 2020. 10.1029/2019JD030923.

2019

29. C. Rae, J. Keeble, P. Hitchcock, and J. Pyle. "Prescribing zonally-asymmetric ozone climatologies in climate models: Performance compared to a chemistry-climate model." J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11:918–933, 2019. 10.1029/2018MS001478.

28. P. Hitchcock. "On the value of reanalyses prior to 1979 for dynamical studies." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19:2749–2764, 2019. 10.5194/acp-19-2749-2019.

2018

27. A. de la Cámara, M. Abalos, P. Hitchcock, N. Calvo et al. "Response of Arctic ozone to sudden stratospheric warmings." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18:16499–16513, 2018. 10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018.

26. I. R. Simpson, P. Hitchcock, R. Seager, Y. Wu et al. "The downward influence of uncertainty in the Northern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change." J. Clim., 31:6371–6391, 2018. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1.

25. A. de la Cámara, M. Abalos, and P. Hitchcock. "Changes in stratospheric transport and mixing during sudden stratospheric warmings." J. Geophys. Res., 123:3356–3373, 2018. 10.1002/2017JD028007.

24. P. Hitchcock, P. H. Haynes, W. J. Randel, and T. Birner. "The emergence of shallow easterly jets within QBO westerlies." J. Atmos. Sci., 75:21–40, 2018. 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0108.1.

2017

23. A. de la Cámara, J. R. Albers, T. Birner, R. R. Garcia et al. "Sensitivity of sudden stratospheric warmings to previous stratospheric conditions." J. Atmos. Sci., 74:2857–2877, 2017. 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0136.1.

22. A. Ming, A. C. Maycock, P. Hitchcock, and P. H. Haynes. "The radiative role of ozone and water vapour in the annual temperature cycle in the tropical tropopause layer." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17:5677–5701, 2017. 10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017.

21. A. Y. Karpechko, P. Hitchcock, D. Peters, and A. Schneidereit. "Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings." Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 143:1459–1470, 2017. 10.1002/qj.3017.

2016

20. P. Hitchcock and P. H. Haynes. "Stratospheric control of planetary waves." Geophys. Res. Lett., 43:11884–11892, 2016. 10.1002/2016GL071372.

19. P. Hitchcock and I. R. Simpson. "Quantifying eddy feedbacks and forcings in the tropospheric response to stratospheric sudden warmings." J. Atmos. Sci., 73:3641–3657, 2016. 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0056.1.

18. A. Ming, P. Hitchcock, and P. H. Haynes. "The response of the lower stratosphere to zonally symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing." J. Atmos. Sci., 73:1903–1922, 2016. 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0294.1.

17. A. Ming, P. Hitchcock, and P. H. Haynes. "The double peak in upwelling and heating in the tropical lower stratosphere." J. Atmos. Sci., 73:1889–1901, 2016. 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0293.1.

2015

16. A. C. Maycock and P. Hitchcock. "Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures?" Geophys. Res. Lett., 42:10943–10951, 2015. 10.1002/2015GL066754.

2014

15. P. Hitchcock and P. H. Haynes. "Zonally symmetric adjustment in the presence of artificial relaxation." J. Atmos. Sci., 71:4349–4368, 2014. 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0013.1.

14. P. Hitchcock and I. R. Simpson. "The downward influence of stratospheric sudden warmings." J. Atmos. Sci., 71:3856–3876, 2014. 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0012.1.

2013

13. P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, M. Taguchi, S. Yoden et al. "Lower-stratospheric radiative damping and polar-night jet oscillation events." J. Atmos. Sci., 70:1391–1408, 2013. 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0193.1.

12. P. Hitchcock and T. G. Shepherd. "Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings." J. Atmos. Sci., 70:688–707, 2013. 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0111.1.

11. P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, and G. L. Manney. "Statistical characterization of Arctic Polar-night Jet Oscillation events." J. Clim., 26:2096–2116, 2013. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00202.1.

10. I. R. Simpson, P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, and J. F. Scinocca. "Southern Annular Mode dynamics in observations and models. Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM." J. Clim., 26:3953–3967, 2013. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00348.1.

9. I. R. Simpson, T. G. Shepherd, P. Hitchcock, and J. F. Scinocca. "Southern Annular Mode dynamics in observations and models. Part II: Eddy feedbacks." J. Clim., 26:5220–5241, 2013. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00495.1.

2011

8. I. R. Simpson, P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, and J. F. Scinocca. "Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular-mode timescales." Geophys. Res. Lett., 38:L20806, 2011. 10.1029/2011GL049304.

2010

7. P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, and S. Yoden. "On the approximation of local and linear radiative damping in the middle atmosphere." J. Atmos. Sci., 67:2070–2085, 2010. 10.1175/2009JAS3286.1.

2009

6. P. Hitchcock, T. G. Shepherd, and C. McLandress. "Past and future conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9:483–495, 2009. 10.5194/acp-9-483-2009.

2006

5. P. Hitchcock and E. S. Sørensen. "Bose-glass to superfluid transition in the three-dimensional Bose-Hubbard model." Phys. Rev. B, 73:174523, 2006. 10.1103/PhysRevB.73.174523.

2004

4. P. Hitchcock, E. S. Sørensen, and F. Alet. "Dual geometric worm algorithm for two-dimensional discrete classical lattice models." Phys. Rev. E, 70:016702, 2004. 10.1103/PhysRevE.70.016702.

2003

3. A.L.D. Kilcoyne, T. Tyliszczak, W.F. Steele, S. Fakra et al. "Interferometrically controlled scanning transmission microscopes at the Advanced Light Source." J. Synchrotron Radiation, 10:125–136, 2003. 10.1107/S0909049502017739.

2. H. Ade, A.L.D. Kilcoyne, T. Tyliszczak, P. Hitchcock et al. "Scanning transmission X-ray microscopy at a bending magnet beamline at the Advanced Light Source." J. de Physique Coll., 104:3–8, 2003. 10.1051/jp4:200300017.

2002

1. T. Warwick, H. Ade, A.L.D. Kilcoyne, M. Kritscher et al. "A new bend magnet beam line for scanning transmission X-ray microscopy at the Advanced Light Source." J. Synchrotron Radiation, 9:254–257, 2002. 10.1107/S0909049502005502.

Book Chapters

2022

4. B. M. Monge-Sanz, T. Birner, S. Chabrillat, M. Diallo et al. Chapter 5: Brewer-Dobson Circulation. In M. Fujiwara, G. L. Manney, L. J. Gray, and J. S. Wright, editors, SPARC Report No. 10: The SPARC S-RIP Activity: SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report, pages 165–220. SPARC Office, 2022. URL: https://www.sparc-climate.org/sparc-report-no-10/, 10.17874/800dee57d13.

3. E. P. Gerber, P. Martineau, B. Ayarzagüena, D. Barriopedro et al. Chapter 6: Extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling. In M. Fujiwara, G. L. Manney, L. J. Gray, and J. S. Wright, editors, SPARC Report No. 10: The SPARC S-RIP Activity: SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report, pages 221–264. SPARC Office, 2022. URL: https://www.sparc-climate.org/sparc-report-no-10/, 10.17874/800dee57d13.

2. V. L. Harvey, J. Knox, J. France, M. Fujiwara et al. Chapter 11: Upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. In M. Fujiwara, G. L. Manney, L. J. Gray, and J. S. Wright, editors, SPARC Report No. 10: The SPARC S-RIP Activity: SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report, pages 533–582. SPARC Office, 2022. URL: https://www.sparc-climate.org/sparc-report-no-10/, 10.17874/800dee57d13.

2019

1. A. Butler, A. Charlton-Perez, D. I.V. Domeisen, C. Garfinkel et al. Chapter 11 - Sub-seasonal predictability and the stratosphere. In A. W. Robertson and F. Vitart, editors, Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, pages 223 – 241. Elsevier, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00011-5.